Ending the conflict in Russia and Ukraine: Dr. Ian Davis outlines a pragmatic approach

This is the conclusion of Briefing Paper No.114, 21 May 2024, NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine?, which may be read here.

Small numbers of military personnel from NATO member states are already operating inside Ukraine. Pressure is growing for these to be supplemented by additional trainers or for NATO countries to use air defences based in eastern Europe to take down Russian missiles and drones targeting Ukraine.

Either of these options would be another blurring of a previous red line and could draw the United States and Europe more directly into the war.

Moreover, if Russia does pierce the Ukrainian lines and advance rapidly, will France and a few other NATO member back up their rhetoric and send combat troops to Ukraine?

This seems unlikely, especially since a limited deployment of French or other NATO member troops would be unlikely to stop a major Russian advance in Ukraine.

Preserving Ukraine’s sovereignty is critical. But instead of continuing with the failed approaches that have only exacerbated global risks, France might be better placed to return to its former leadership role in pushing for more intensive diplomacy aimed at ending the conflict. A ceasefire could be accompanied by the establishment by the UN Security Council of a demilitarized or buffer zone along the more than 1,000km-long current frontline in the war patrolled by a UN peacekeeping force.

To gain the necessary support in the UN Security Council, including that of Russia, the BRICS countries need to be an integral part of the diplomacy. Similarly, any UN peacekeeping force could involve mainly BRICS countries with a strong track record in UN peace operations, such as China, India and South Africa.

The demilitarization zone could be achieved without formally settling any respective territorial claims, enabling key aspects of the conflict (such as the status of Crimea) to be resolved peacefully via further diplomatic dialogue, by an international court or by a recognised plebiscite overseen by the United Nations.

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